ian Ashton
October 30, 2026

Market Update — Friday, October 30, 2026

Reprice Considerations
Not within range for Reprices in either direction
Rate Ramblings
Morning Conventional rate sheets saw some solid improvements, with most popular scenarios shedding 37 to 50bps, with Govy rate sheets seeing a little more sporadic improvements.

Nothing really to cover on the Economic Calendar, so let's talk about sending some KUDOs!

Loan Officers; have you scheduled your Halloween post from QuickPost Studio?!
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The Spread between the average 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and the 10 Year US Treasury is 236bps

The Chart
Market chart
Daily Price Change
The price for rates improved by 29bps on average across the rate stack;
rates between 0.0 and 5.5 improved by 20bps
rates between 5.5 and 6.0 improved by 40bps
rates between 6.0 and 6.5 improved by 43bps
rates between 6.5 and 7.0 improved by 48bps
rates between 7.0 and 7.5 improved by 38bps
rates between 7.5 and 8.0 improved by 16bps
The price for rates improved by 19bps on average across the rate stack;
rates between 0.0 and 5.5 improved by 19bps
rates between 5.5 and 6.0 improved by 23bps
rates between 6.0 and 6.5 improved by 13bps
rates between 6.5 and 7.0 improved by 19bps
rates between 7.0 and 7.5 improved by 50bps
rates between 7.5 and above improved by 19bps
Conventional as of 10/30/26 8:25 AM PST   |   Government as of 10/30/26 8:27 AM PST
The National Average Conventional 30 Year Fixed Rate is 7.29% (-0.06%)
The National Average FHA 30 Year Fixed Rate is 6.91% (-0.08%)
Source: Mortgage News Daily, As of October 29, 2026 (checked October 30, 2026 at 11:28 AM EDT)
Reverse Mortgage Principal Limit Watch
10-year CMT daily rates for the week of Oct 26–Oct 30
MondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday
5.00%4.99%5.05%4.98%Pending
Running weekly average: 5.005% (4 of 5 days; provisional)
CURRENT EXPECTED RATE INDEX
5.125%
Good through Monday, Nov 2
 
ESTIMATED NEXT INDEX
5.000%
Scheduled for Tuesday, Nov 3 if confirmed
The Oct 26–Oct 30 daily readings determine the index scheduled for Tuesday, Nov 3. The running index is 7 bps lower. If confirmed, HECM principal limits would generally increase.
Source: U.S. Treasury daily 10-year CMT. Index boxes are rounded to the nearest 0.125%; the running average is shown to three decimals. Actual expected rate also includes lender margin; borrower proceeds depend on the principal limit factor and loan details.
Economic Calendar
FRIDAY - 10/30
MARKET MOVER
9:45 AM
Chicago PMI: October
Life
This morning we had Kate's final elementary school Halloween parade, as she rounds out 5th grade.  She's dressed as a plague doctor, which is hilariously adorable.  I had to get a pic of her popping out of the sunroof of OMGAMG, lol.

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Previous Updates
Fed Hike Pause, Tame PCE, Market is Happy, For Now... | Market Update
Monring rate sheets are mostly even on the popular scenarios, with a solid amount of improvement to the lower rate scenarios. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation w...
Market Update — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Morning rate sheets saw a nice bit of improvement on the rates we are locking, more than the market dictates; this isn't especially uncommon on more volatile days, although ususally its in the other direction. Most sc...
Market Update — Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Morning rate sheets are a little more expensive than they were yesterday, with many Conventional scenarios adding 12 to 37bps. Durable Goods rose 1.8% in September, beating forecast of 1.5% and jumping from the previo...
Quiet Morning, Executive Order on Housing... | Market Update
Morning Conventional rate sheets are mostly the same as what we saw Friday, with a little bit of increases on sporadic rates between 5.5% and 7.5%, and some improvements on the lower rate scenarios. Govy rate sheets s...
Market Update — Monday, October 26, 2026
Morning Conventional rate sheets are mostly the same as what we saw Friday, with a little bit of increases on sporadic rates between 5.5% and 7.5%, and some improvements on the lower rate scenarios. Govy rate sheets s...
Modest improvements, but could start seeing Reprice for the Worse... | Market Update
Morning Conventional rate sheets continued to improve, with most scenarios seeing 12 to 25bps improvement in price, while Govy is a little more sporadic, with some scenarios unchanged, some improved a little, some inc...
10/22/2026 Reprice Alert: Reprices for the Better Have Loaded
I locked one earlier today, so that explains the rally.  You are welcome.The 10yr is back under 5.00, and the flight to safety is confirmed, for now.Again I say, don't get greedy - lock with float down if you are thinkin
Best rate sheets we've seen in a month! | Market Update
Morning rate sheets got a beautiful bit of improvement after yesterday's sell-off (more on that below); most Conventional and Govy scenarios saw 12 to 37bps improvement in price, with the lower rates dropping as much ...
10/21/2026 Market Update: Reprice Alert — Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse
MBS has dipped inot the Reprice for the Worse range - I can't tell what is driving the sell off; Oil doesn't seem to be the cause, Iran seems to be quiet, the stock market doesn't seem to be doing anything...
Small improvements across the board... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets saw a bit of improvement, with most scenarios shedding 12bps in price. Slow and steady wins the race :) Don't get greedy; as we've seen, the market can turn on a dime for any or no reason. Lock and...
Quiet morning, a little sporadic improvement to rate sheets... | Market Update
Morning Conventional rate sheets were a bit of a mixed bag, with some scenarios improving 12bps, others increasing 12bps, while Govy sheets were mostly unchanged. ADP’s Weekly Employment Pulse declind to 18,500 averag...
10/19/2026 Market Update: 10/19/2026 Reprice Alert — Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse
We are within range to start seeing Reprices for the Worse - a few lenders have already loaded new rate sheets, but the risk is relatively moderate for the time being.10yr UST is back on the rise, currently at 5.146ish.
A little bit of slippage, but rate sheets | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are mostly the same as what we saw Friday, with a mixed bag of improvements and increases on the popular scenarios. The National Association of Home Builders Market Index for October declined to 29...
10/16/2026 Market Update: Mid-Day Check-In — Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse
Not shocking given the week we've had; MBS is selling off and a few lenders have already loaded Reprices for the Worse.  I'd expect more to follow if this holds.
Up, Down, All Around... | Market Update
Morning Conventional rate sheets are mostly unchanged in the popular ranges, with lower rate scenarios (6.50% and below) seeing 12 to 50bps increase in cost: Govy rate sheets are similar, with 12 to 25bps increase on ...
10/15/2026 Market Update: Reprice Alert — Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse
We've seen MBS drift since the morning spike, with a few lenders already loading Reprices for the Worse; I'd imagine more will follow if this holds or continues.
Insane, Counter-Intuitive Rally Continues... | Market Update
Rates have continued to carry yesterday afternoons ?flight to safety? rally, despite economic data that would typically cause a sea of red ink. Morning rate sheets saw 37 to 75bps improvement in price on popular scena...
10/14/2026 Market Update: 10/14/2026 Mid-Day Check In: Another Major Rally - Reprices for the Better Have Loaded
Well that didn't last long; driven by nothing in particular; Josh says it's likely a flight to safety - I'm inclined to agree.  We've seen MBS rebound significantly, with rate sheets looking much more like they did yeste
CPI back on the rise after a few months of nothing... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are a bit more expensive than they were yesterday, which is shocking since I locked one yesterday, with most Conventional scenarios adding 37bps to price, and Govy adding 12 to 25bps. Why? Keep rea...
Great way to start the week! | Market Update
A few folks have inquired about the (now former) lower case i in the heading of "Ian’s Daily Update" - it's a little longer of a story as to why I don't capitalize the i, but I figured to keep from breaking folks brai...
Gave back some of yesterday's improvements, but not all... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are 12 to 25bps more expensive on most popular Conventional scenaros, while most Govy scenarios are unchanged to slightly improved. As expected, bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities are down a bit ...
Major Rally Under Way - Reprices for the Better Likely — October 8, 2026, 1:20 PM
We've got a major rally underway, driven by a particularly strong 30 year treasury auction.  Some lenders have already loaded reprices for the better, I would imagine all will follow if this holds.
Yesterdays rally reversed, but rate sheets saw little change, for now... | Market Update
Bonds have sold off a fair bit this morning, althought it's not really reflected in the rates we are locking, which is a very good thing. By and large, most scenarios are pricing just like they were before yesterday a...
Market Update — Thursday, October 8, 2026
Bonds have sold off a fair bit this morning, althought it's not really reflected in the rates we are locking, which is a very good thing. By and large, most scenarios are pricing just like they were before yesterday a...
Mid-Day Check-In —Reprices for the Better Have Loaded! October 7, 2026, 2:31 PM
Most Conventional scenarios are 12+bps improved, with a little more on Govy.Several lenders have loaded Reprices for the Better with bonds rallying after a particularly strong 10 year treasury auction and surprisingly...
10/7/2026 Market Update: A very strange open ahead of important 10 year treasury auction and FOMC minutes release
Morning rate sheets are modestly more expensive than they were yesterday, with most scenarios increasing in price by 12bps. I suppose I need to add commentary in the daily rate change for 7.0 - 7.5, aye? It's been a b...
What is this strange color I'm seeing - a little bit of green to start the day! | Market Update
Morning rate sheetsare finally a little more friendly, with most popular Conventional scenarios improving 25 to 37bps; Govy scenarios are a little more sporadic with improvements. What is driving the improvements? if ...
More of the same | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are ~37-75bps more expensive than they were Friday morning, but not much different than what we saw Friday afternoon. There is nothing new driving the sell off as it started before the morning data...
Massive Non Farm Payrolls Miss - Rally Continues - Lock ‘Em Up! | Market Update
September Non Farm Payrolls gave us a much needed and massive win this morning, posting just 29,000 jobs created, massively missing forecast of 90,000; adding to the party, August was downwardly revised from 162,000 t...
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse — October 2, 2026, 1:06 PM
Reprice Alert market update
Mid-Day Check-In — October 1, 2026, 2:23 PM
Several lenders have loaded Reprices for the Better as bonds have bounced off the theorhetical cieling of 5.339 set yesterday.   Helping the cause is likely a quote from this afternoon from Fed Vice chair Philip Jefferso
Finally some good news: Market is rallying, rate sheets improved... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are tough to strike, with most Conventional scenarios above 7.00 improving ~12 to 27bps, while most Govy scenarios are 0 to 25bps more expensive than yesterday morning. What a strange morning; we s...
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse - September 30, 2026, 12:47 PM
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the worse
A little help from PCE, but MBS drifiting toward Reprice for the Worse range, again... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets were a bit of a mixed bag, as we approach Reprice for the Worse territory - for Conventional we saw little change on the higher rates that we are locking, while the mid range (5.50 to 7.00) saw mod...
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse - September 29, 2026, 1:39 PM
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the worse
Rates hit 7.5% for the first time in months... Market Update — Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Morning rate sheets continued to get more expensive, with most scenarios adding 12 to 25bps in price. Oil started falling overnight, currently down around $91.2X/BBL from yesterday's high just over $96/BBL, as Saudi A...
Friday's afternoon rally reversed by, yet again, failed peace talks with Iran... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets erased Friday afternoon's Reprices for the Better, with most scenarios 12bps more expensive than what we saw Friday morning. Shocking literally nobody, Bonds rallied Friday on headlines of a potent...
More of the same... | Market Update
The day started out with promise, but quickly returned to red ink. Morning rate sheets are a bit more expensive than yesterday afternoon, with most scenarios adding 25bps in price. We aren't quite in Reprice for the W...
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the Worse - September 24, 2026, 3:48 PM
Could Start Seeing Reprices for the worse
Mid-Day Check-In — Bonds seem to have leveled off, for now...
Bonds seem to have calmed down a bit and rebounded off the lows.  After accounting for the wave of reprices this morning, we are currently not within range to see Reprices for the Worse, although that could change in an
Back in Range for Reprices for the Worse Already - Bond Selloff Continues... | Market Update
Bonds looked like they were trying to stage a comeback this morning, although we've long sense abandoned that idea, as the selloff continues. So far, morning rate sheets saw moderate improvement from last night's upda...
End of Day Recap — Once a Snowball Starts Rolling Down a Hill...
What a day - all told MBS lost nearly 100bps from market open to market close.  Rate Sheets reflect a similar reality.  I pulled reprice rate sheets just before 2pm EST.What was the cause?  It could be Iran, it could be
MBS / Rate Sheets Getting Rocked This Morning... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets are a fair bit more expensive than they were yesterday, with most popular scenarios adding between 37 and 75bps to price. Would you be shocked if I told you the gains are likely being driven by, wa...
Another day of modest improvements to rate sheets... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets have continued the slow improvement, with today being the 3rd day in a row - DON'T JINX IT! Most popular scenarios have improved by 12bps, with more improvement on the lower rate scenarios. What is...
Nice Monday Morning Rebound Erases Much of Friday's Sell-Off... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets rebounded off of Friday's selloff, with most scenarios improving 0-12bps in price. This is presumably driven by the continuing downward trend of oil, with WTI trading just under $93/bbl, marking 4 ...
MBS Bouncing like a basket ball... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets took a bit of a hit, with most scenarios increasing 12 to 25bps in price. This was most likely driven by overnight increases in oil, which jumped from ~$95/bbl to $97/bbl, and the fact that it's Fr...
Shaking off the post-Fed hangover: rally has reversed yesterday's sell-off... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets have rebounded nicely after yesterday's Fed Presser inspired bloodbath. Most popular scenarios have improved by 12bps in price as compared to yesterday's pre-reprice rate sheets. If I had to guess,...
Surprising rally ahead of Fed Announcement & Presser... | Market Update
Morning rate sheets improved across the stack, with most popular scenarios shedding 12bps in price, and 25bps+ on the lower rate scenarios. Don't get greedy; this could be a trap. Gains evaporate quickly on Fed Day. I...
Mostly calm morning ahead of Wednesday's Fed Meeting... | Market Update
Yesterday was an active day for MBS, with wide swings up and down, but ultimately ending within a few ticks of where we started, while the 10yr US Treasury yeild broke above 5.00%, marking the highest level since July...
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